Inside The Numbers- Why Jason Conger is the only Republican who can beat Jeff Merkley


Jason Conger is the Only Republican Candidate Who Can Win

Nothing is more important to this Republican primary than beating Jeff Merkley in 2014. We cannot afford to put forward a candidate who is unable to challenge the Democrats statewide, and the numbers clearly prove that the only Republican capable of unseating Merkley is Jason Conger. Conger is only 7% behind Merkley and we have not even finished the primary yet. This shows that Conger’s story of Homeless to Harvard, his real vision for Oregon, and conservative principles are resonating with Oregonians. Alternatively, Monica Wehby runs a distant 12% behind Merkley – which is not even within striking distance.

Merkley 47% Conger 40%
Merkley 46% Wehby 34%

Republicans are united behind Conger, are disillusioned with Wehby

In order to win a statewide election in Oregon as a Republican, you have to have your conservative base behind you. You cannot hope to win if Republicans do not rally behind you. The strong show of support from Republicans is one of the most significant reasons Conger’s polling numbers were so much better than Wehby’s. Conger performed 7% better with Republicans than Wehby. While Republicans have a favorable opinion of Conger, there are more Republicans who have an unfavorable view of Wehby than those that have a favorable opinion. Wehby has taken many liberal and controversial positions that have frustrated Republicans – such as, she is pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, said she “thinks a lot alike in regards to health care” as Democrat Sen. Ron Wyden and that she would not repeal Obamacare if elected.

There are many who say, “You have to be a moderate/liberal Republican in order to win in Oregon,” or, “You cannot win if you are too conservative.” These numbers prove why this is simply not true. How can you hope to win if your own party has a negative opinion of you?

Support from Republicans

Conger – 80.8%
Wehby – 73.0%
Republican opinion
Conger – Favorable (17.3%) Unfavorable (14.6%)
Wehby – Favorable (9.5%) Unfavorable (15.4%)

Jason Conger is the only Republican who beat Merkley with critical swing voters

The Republican nominee will have to persuade Independent and Non-Affiliated voters to vote for a conservative in 2014 if they hope to defeat Merkley. Jason Conger was the only Republican to win more of the non-partisan voters than Merkley, and he did it handedly by 7%. Conger vastly outperformed Wehby with swing voters and acquired 15% more support from non-partisan voters. This is a huge and important disparity between the two Republican primary candidates. Jason Conger has proven that he alone can connect with swing voters.

Merkley vs. Conger with Swing Voters
Merkley – 38%
Conger – 45%
Merkley vs. Wehby with Swing Voters
Merkley – 32%
Wehby – 30%

Jason Conger outperforms Wehby with women

We know that women will be key to Republican victory in 2014, and much has been made to emphasize this point and candidate’s ability to appeal to women voters. Jason Conger did 5% better than Wehby with women voters.

Support from women
Conger – 33.4%
Wehby – 28.4%

Jason Conger does better with young voters than Wehby

Jason Conger has shown that he can appeal to and mobilize young people. Much like women, this is a demographic that Republicans have struggled to win and communicate with, but is a critical voter group in Oregon. Conger did 6% better than Wehby with voters between ages 18-50.

Support from young voters
Conger – 42.9%
Wehby – 36.4%

To learn more about why Oregonians are rallying behind Jason Conger’s unique candidacy watch the following video.

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